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15th-century Chinese sailors have a lesson for Trump about climate policy

/ Monday, June 12, 2017

File 20170602 25652 26t8km
Disruptive technology, Ming Dynasty-style.
Vmenkov/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA

In the early 15th century the Ming Dynasty in China undertook a series of expensive oceangoing expeditions called the Treasure Voyages. Despite the voyages’ success, elements of the elite opposed them. “These voyages are bad, very bad,” we can imagine them tweeting. “They are a bad deal for China.” Eventually these inward-looking, isolationist leaders gained enough power to prevent future voyages.

But this was an own goal. The parochial elites who killed off the Treasure Voyages could stop Chinese maritime innovation, but they could do nothing to prevent it elsewhere. Decades later, European sailors mastered the art of sailing vast distances across the ocean, and created fortunes and empires on the back of that technology (for better or worse). It is hard to see how China’s strategic interests were served by abandoning a field in which they led.

There are some striking parallels in the Trump administration’s decision to renege on the Paris climate agreement. It has been cast as a move to protect America, but in the long run it won’t derail the world’s transition to a low-carbon economy, and instead the US will find itself lagging, not leading.

Trump’s repudiation of the Paris deal is regrettable for at least three reasons. First, because the US is a technological leader whose entrepreneurs are extremely well placed to lead the global low-carbon transition; second, because America’s abdication of climate leadership weakens the global order and sends a wink and a nod to other fossil-fuelled recalcitrants like Saudi Arabia and Russia; and finally because having the world’s second-highest emitter outside the agreement is a clear negative.

That said, US flip-flopping on climate is nothing new. The nation played a strong role in shaping the Kyoto Protocol, only to fail to ratify it. And while that did not help matters, it did not derail international efforts to combat climate change. In fact, the momentum behind climate-friendly initiatives has grown several-fold since the early 2000s.

Viewed in the long run, the latest US defection changes little. Any conceivable future Democrat administration will rejoin the Paris Agreement. But more importantly, the transition to a low-carbon future is not dependent on the actions of a single player.

The criteria for successful climate change policy are hard to achieve but easy to describe: success will come when non-emitting technologies economically outcompete fossil fuels, pretty much everywhere in the world, in the main half-dozen or so sectors that matter.


Beating the ‘free-rider’ issue

A stable climate is what we call a “public good”, similar to fresh air or clean water. The US political scientist Scott Barrett has pointed out that climate change is an “aggregate efforts public good”, in the sense that everybody has to chip in to solve the problem of safeguarding the climate for everyone.

“Aggregate efforts” public goods are especially hard to preserve, because there is a strong incentive to free-ride on the efforts of others, as the US now seeks to do.

But technology can transform this situation, turning an aggregate efforts public good into a “best-shot public good”. This is a situation in which one player playing well can determine the whole outcome, and as such is a much easier problem to solve.

We have seen technology play this role before, in other global environmental issues. The ozone hole looked like a hard problem, but became an easy one once an inexpensive, effective technological fix became available in the form of other gases to use in place of ozone-harming CFCs (ironically, however, the solution exacerbated global warming).

Something similar happened with acid rain, caused by a handful of industrial pollutants. Dealing with carbon dioxide emissions is harder in view of the number of sources, but breakthroughs in five or six sectors could make a massive dent in emissions.


Technology trumps politics

This suggests that solving climate change relies far more heavily on technological innovation and successful entrepreneurship than it does on any single government. Policies in specific jurisdictions can speed climate policy up or slow it down, but as long as no single government can kill the spirit of entrepreneurship, then no country’s actions can alter the long-run outcome.

This is why German climatologist John Schellnhuber is right to say that “if the US really chooses to leave the Paris agreement, the world will move on with building a clean and secure future”.

The low-carbon race is still on, and the main effect of Trump’s decision is to put US innovators at a disadvantage relative to their international competitors.

We have seen these technological races before, and we have seen what recalcitrance and isolationism can do. Just ask the Ming Dynasty, who ceded their maritime leadership and in doing so let Europe reap the spoils of colonialism for half a millennium.

Similarly, the Trump administration can ignore basic physics if it likes, although this is electorally unsustainable – young Americans can see that it is in their own interest to support climate policy. Democracies are imperfect, but over time they have the ability to self-correct.

Developing polices that regulate the release of environmentally damaging gases is important. Pricing carbon is important. But government policy is not everything. Ultimately, this problem will be solved mainly by technology, because the way out of the jam is by finding new, inexpensive ways for humans to flourish without harming the planet.

Dave Frame, Professor of Climate Change, Victoria University of Wellington

This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.

File 20170602 25652 26t8km
Disruptive technology, Ming Dynasty-style.
Vmenkov/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA

In the early 15th century the Ming Dynasty in China undertook a series of expensive oceangoing expeditions called the Treasure Voyages. Despite the voyages’ success, elements of the elite opposed them. “These voyages are bad, very bad,” we can imagine them tweeting. “They are a bad deal for China.” Eventually these inward-looking, isolationist leaders gained enough power to prevent future voyages.

But this was an own goal. The parochial elites who killed off the Treasure Voyages could stop Chinese maritime innovation, but they could do nothing to prevent it elsewhere. Decades later, European sailors mastered the art of sailing vast distances across the ocean, and created fortunes and empires on the back of that technology (for better or worse). It is hard to see how China’s strategic interests were served by abandoning a field in which they led.

There are some striking parallels in the Trump administration’s decision to renege on the Paris climate agreement. It has been cast as a move to protect America, but in the long run it won’t derail the world’s transition to a low-carbon economy, and instead the US will find itself lagging, not leading.

Trump’s repudiation of the Paris deal is regrettable for at least three reasons. First, because the US is a technological leader whose entrepreneurs are extremely well placed to lead the global low-carbon transition; second, because America’s abdication of climate leadership weakens the global order and sends a wink and a nod to other fossil-fuelled recalcitrants like Saudi Arabia and Russia; and finally because having the world’s second-highest emitter outside the agreement is a clear negative.

That said, US flip-flopping on climate is nothing new. The nation played a strong role in shaping the Kyoto Protocol, only to fail to ratify it. And while that did not help matters, it did not derail international efforts to combat climate change. In fact, the momentum behind climate-friendly initiatives has grown several-fold since the early 2000s.

Viewed in the long run, the latest US defection changes little. Any conceivable future Democrat administration will rejoin the Paris Agreement. But more importantly, the transition to a low-carbon future is not dependent on the actions of a single player.

The criteria for successful climate change policy are hard to achieve but easy to describe: success will come when non-emitting technologies economically outcompete fossil fuels, pretty much everywhere in the world, in the main half-dozen or so sectors that matter.


Beating the ‘free-rider’ issue

A stable climate is what we call a “public good”, similar to fresh air or clean water. The US political scientist Scott Barrett has pointed out that climate change is an “aggregate efforts public good”, in the sense that everybody has to chip in to solve the problem of safeguarding the climate for everyone.

“Aggregate efforts” public goods are especially hard to preserve, because there is a strong incentive to free-ride on the efforts of others, as the US now seeks to do.

But technology can transform this situation, turning an aggregate efforts public good into a “best-shot public good”. This is a situation in which one player playing well can determine the whole outcome, and as such is a much easier problem to solve.

We have seen technology play this role before, in other global environmental issues. The ozone hole looked like a hard problem, but became an easy one once an inexpensive, effective technological fix became available in the form of other gases to use in place of ozone-harming CFCs (ironically, however, the solution exacerbated global warming).

Something similar happened with acid rain, caused by a handful of industrial pollutants. Dealing with carbon dioxide emissions is harder in view of the number of sources, but breakthroughs in five or six sectors could make a massive dent in emissions.


Technology trumps politics

This suggests that solving climate change relies far more heavily on technological innovation and successful entrepreneurship than it does on any single government. Policies in specific jurisdictions can speed climate policy up or slow it down, but as long as no single government can kill the spirit of entrepreneurship, then no country’s actions can alter the long-run outcome.

This is why German climatologist John Schellnhuber is right to say that “if the US really chooses to leave the Paris agreement, the world will move on with building a clean and secure future”.

The low-carbon race is still on, and the main effect of Trump’s decision is to put US innovators at a disadvantage relative to their international competitors.

We have seen these technological races before, and we have seen what recalcitrance and isolationism can do. Just ask the Ming Dynasty, who ceded their maritime leadership and in doing so let Europe reap the spoils of colonialism for half a millennium.

Similarly, the Trump administration can ignore basic physics if it likes, although this is electorally unsustainable – young Americans can see that it is in their own interest to support climate policy. Democracies are imperfect, but over time they have the ability to self-correct.

Developing polices that regulate the release of environmentally damaging gases is important. Pricing carbon is important. But government policy is not everything. Ultimately, this problem will be solved mainly by technology, because the way out of the jam is by finding new, inexpensive ways for humans to flourish without harming the planet.

Dave Frame, Professor of Climate Change, Victoria University of Wellington

This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.
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Image 20160810 18023 1mgdhau
Children with albinism are often teased and bullied by their peers.
International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies/Flickr, CC BY-NC-ND

Any label that’s used to describe a person’s skin colour carries some connotation. It may point to discrimination, stereotyping and perceptions of beauty, even between those of the same race. This is especially true for people with albinism. Their skin colour leads to negative social constructions among Africans, including beliefs that they are evil cannibals or are cursed.

In Tanzania, witch doctors (waganga wa kienyeji) believe that people with albinism are immortal and that their genitals bring wealth. This drives people with albinism into hiding as they fear being murdered so their body parts can be used in rituals.

But Tanzanians with albinism don’t just face the threat of physical violence. They also suffer everyday discrimination. This begins, in many cases, at school. There is no hard data available about how many children with albinism are enrolled in the country’s schools. Overall, Tanzania has a very high rate of people living with the condition.

Early evidence from my ongoing study of the issue – building on my own previous research – suggests that such discrimination makes students with albinism particularly vulnerable to dropping out of school. This squares with what previous research into the problem has shown.


The law versus the reality

In theory, people with albinism are protected by Tanzania’s laws. The constitution’s equality clause stipulates that all human beings are born free and equal, and all are entitled to recognition and respect for their dignity.

So when they are unfairly discriminated against on the basis of their condition, people with albinism should be able to rely on the constitution. Sadly though, these paper rights don’t translate into daily life. Research by medical anthropologist Giorgio Brocco has shown that many Tanzanians simply don’t understand albinism. They know very little about what causes the condition and display their ignorance by mocking people with albinism.

This sort of mockery is sadly common in schools. Children with albinism are teased and physically bullied by classmates who don’t understand their condition.


Name-calling causes real damage

The presence of difference seems to give some children the “green light” to tease others. Fear, ignorance and a lack of education about albinism drive this teasing.

Name-calling may be interpreted as a means by which to oppress people with albinism. Certain words function to describe someone in a derogatory way, which in turn oppresses and hurts the individual in question.

It has also been argued that name-calling has the effect of excluding people. Students with albinism feel they can’t participate fully or confidently in class. When they ask questions or venture an opinion, they are called names such as “whitey”, “four eyes” (albinism is often associated with poor vision) and “mzungu” (“white person”) by fellow students, so they simply withdraw.

Research has shown that teachers and school managers in Tanzania don’t know much about the specific educational needs of children with albinism. The resulting lack of support and care, the evidence suggests, drives up rates of truancy among these children – and can even lead to them dropping out before they finish school.


Support needed

All children – especially those with special learning needs – require support if they are to learn effectively and remain in school. For children with albinism this support must come from policymakers, teachers, their peers, parents and health specialists.

Schools need to take the lead to tackle bullying in the classroom. They are in the ideal position to teach children about the harm that’s done by discrimination. Lessons can also be arranged specifically to teach pupils about albinism – its causes, the myths that surround it and why these really are just myths. Children themselves could take part in these lessons by doing research or talking to their classmates who have albinism so they can begin to develop understanding and empathy.

Parents must also get involved. They can model behaviours for their children that teach them how to deal with negative comments. They can develop positive ways for their children to respond to teasing and name-calling in the future. They can also put pressure on schools to put in place proper anti-bullying policies.

Given that children with albinism are very vulnerable to dropping out of school early, such support is crucial. These children deserve an education as much as their peers. There should be no barriers to them achieving this.

Simon Ngalomba, Lecturer in Educational Management, University of Dar es Salaam

This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.
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People with albinism often isolate themselves to avoid discrimination.
Shutterstock


Myths and stereotypes about albinism abound. People with the condition are called derogatory names, like inkawu – the Nguni term for white baboon – and isishawa, a Zulu word for a person who is cursed. They are stared at, and must field ignorant questions.

Some beliefs about albinism are incredibly dangerous, like the idea that having sex with a woman with albinism will cure a man of HIV. The bones and body parts of people with albinism are believed by some to bring good luck. In countries like Tanzania, Kenya and Zimbabwe, people with albinism are hunted so their body parts, particularly their hands and genitals, can be used in traditional medicine (muthi).

Albinism is a word derived from the Latin albus, meaning white. It’s a genetically inherited condition where a shortage of melanin pigment affects the eyes, hair and skin. Most people with albinism tend to have light hair, skin and eyes – but their other facial features and hair texture resemble those of Africans. They are usually born into black African families.

This means people with albinism tend to identify with the black rather than the white community. Their physical differences, though, mean they don’t fit into either the black or white race groups. I worked with two other researchers, Relebohile Phatoli and Nontembeko Bila, to try and understand the experience and contradiction of being a black person in a white skin in post-apartheid South Africa.

People with albinism often battle poor vision and blindness because of their condition. The students we interviewed struggled to keep up in lectures because they couldn’t see the board properly.

There were other struggles, too. Our findings confirmed the lack of knowledge about albinism, as well as stigma, “othering” – to separate “them” from “us” – and discrimination in relation to people with this condition.


Stigma and stares

About one out of every 4000 South Africans is living with albinism. Although the dangers aren’t as great in South Africa as for those in countries such as Tanzania, Kenya and Zimbabwe, people with albinism still struggle with stigma and discrimination.

We interviewed five university students with albinism and 10 students at the same university without the condition. The institution in question is a large urban university with several satellite campuses. There are an estimated 10 students with albinism registered at this university; it is not compulsory to register with the institution’s programme for disabled students and some people with albinism do not regard themselves as being disabled.

Our aim was to explore the beliefs and practices regarding albinism within a South African university. What we found exposed the sort of discrimination and “othering” that people with albinism experience.

One of the students with albinism said:

Honestly, I think albinism is a curse because people always stare at me, talk about me behind my back and also make very nasty remarks when I pass, saying that I do not know that my father is not black but is a white person and that is why I look the way I do.

This type of comment highlights the intersection of race, colour and gender in the social construction of such beliefs.

A student without albinism believed that albinos

don’t die, they just go missing and they disappear. Last year when I was pregnant, I was told that I must not look at the albinos because if I do I will get a child with albinism or if I do look at them by mistake I should spit at them to avoid a child with albinism.

Such forms of stigma have far-reaching psychopathological ramifications, such as self-exclusion from services, alienation and social withdrawal, loss of identity, poor self-image, depression and anxiety.

Stereotypes also dramatically affected the way people without albinism interacted with people with albinism. This in turn influenced how people with albinism viewed themselves. One student with the condition remarked: “I always have to prove myself, work extra hard and put in more effort into everything so that people can see me as ‘normal’.”

Isolation was another problem for students with albinism. They preferred to exclude themselves from the rest of the student population to avoid being judged or experiencing discrimination.

The students who didn’t have albinism said they were willing to befriend people with the condition – but wouldn’t necessarily go on dates with them. Those students who had befriended peers with albinism said they were able to value and appreciate the person behind the condition.


Learning and empowerment

So what are the lessons that can be learned from this research? How can young South Africans learn more about albinism and start breaking down the myths around it?

We recommend that schools provide knowledge and awareness programmes about the condition of albinism in the Life Orientation curriculum. Life Orientation is the holistic study of the self in relation to others and to society and focuses on the personal, social, intellectual, emotional, spiritual and physical growth of learners. This subject is usually offered in the last three years of high school.

Universities and colleges also need to engage in awareness programmes with students and lecturers. These programmes must explore the impact of beliefs and stereotypes on people affected by this condition, and the challenges posed by reading lecture notes.

Social workers, psychologists, nurses and other helping professionals need to arrange support groups and educate parents, learners, teachers, traditional healers and the general public about what causes albinism. They can also teach people how to treat those with the condition and equip those with albinism to handle discrimination.

People living with albinism must be given the tools they need to exercise agency and help play an active role in breaking the cycle of stigma and discrimination. By being out in the world, empowered to discuss their condition, they can demystify it and be positive role models.

Through these strategies we can hopefully create a safer, more just, humane and caring society where the rights of all groups are respected.

Eleanor Ross, Visiting Professor of Social Work, University of Johannesburg

This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.
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File 20170608 32294 12onp7d
A protester calling for President Jacob Zuma’s removal.
Reuters/Mike Hutchings

It is probably no consolation to Brian Molefe, the CEO of South Africa’s power utility Eskom, that his woes are evidence that President Jacob Zuma’s March cabinet reshuffle has so far had precisely the opposite effect to that which was expected.

Nor, no doubt, would it cheer Molefe to know that his plight has become a symbol of an important reality: that who occupies which political post is turning out to be far less important to the government’s economic decision-making than it seemed.

Molefe’s woes are evidence that the country’s infamous cabinet reshuffle has so far had precisely the opposite effect to that which was generally expected.

Before the reshuffle, many expected that, if Zuma did fire the finance minister and deputy minister, the balance of power in government would sharply change. Walls which held the state’s capture at bay would come tumbling down.

But this has not happened. The ANC patronage faction may have strengthened its presence in the Cabinet. But its attempt to take control of key institutions is in retreat in the face of opposition within the governing party and from unions, business and civil society groups.

Thus far the patronage group’s opponents have also turned the tide by winning changes which reverse its gains. This does not mean that the patronage faction’s opponents have won: the battle will continue to be fought decision by decision, day to day, possibly until the 2019 election. But the patronage group’s expected triumph has not materialised despite changes in the faces in government.


Molefe’s Pyrrhic victory

It is widely known that the Treasury is a key prize for the ANC’s patronage faction. It was also expected across the spectrum that if Pravin Gordhan and Mcebisi Jonas were out of the way, it would be able to get on with handing over public resources to private interests without hindrance. Molefe’s recent experiences shows that this has not happened.

After leaving Eskom in response to the Public Protector’s State of Capture report which linked him to the Gupta family, Molefe landed in Parliament chosen by North West province, a patronage faction stronghold.

When Zuma told ANC leaders he planned to replace Gordhan, it became clear that Molefe had not been given his seat as a consolation prize – the president wanted to appoint him finance minister. He backed off because half the ANC’s top six leaders insisted that Molefe was unacceptable because he had become firmly linked to the patronage faction.

This seems to have made Molefe so politically radioactive that he was not given any post in the reshuffle. Since he presumably had not come to parliament to sit on committees, he was given his Eskom job back.

This prompted a backlash – from within the ANC as well as outside it. The governing party issued a statement rejecting the appointment and the ANC national executive committee, its decision-making body between conferences, agreed that Molefe should go.

He now relies on courts to give him back his job – the same courts which have barred him temporarily from Eskom property, suggesting that they may see less merit in his case than he hopes.

What is the political import of these events? Not only have the president and the patronage faction been unable to secure Molefe any job in the Cabinet which would enable him to take the economic decisions they want. They have also failed to persuade an ANC national executive committee that Molefe should keep his Eskom job. That hardly suggests an all-conquering patronage faction ready to do with the state whatever it pleases.


Other patronage faction losses

Molefe’s fate is not an isolated incident. Since the reshuffle, every key government decision has gone against the patronage faction. The president has finally, after months of stonewalling, signed the Amendments to the Financial Intelligence Centre Act. The amendments aim to tighten control on illicit financial activity and were opposed by the patronage faction.

The interim board of the South African Broadcasting Corporation has begun an attempt to retrieve it from the faction. A deal between the armaments parastatal Denel and a company with links to the Gupta family, VR Laser Asia, has been halted.

Berning Ntlemeza, head of the Hawks, the special investigating unit which hounded Gordhan and Jonas and was seen as a loyal instrument of the patronage group, has been removed by new Police Minister Fikile Mbalula.

Investigations have been ordered into Eskom transactions.

There is a clear pattern here and it sends the opposite message to the one expected before the reshuffle. It is consistent with a takeover by the patronage faction’s opponents, not the faction itself.

How do we explain this? Why, after Zuma, a key figure in the patronage faction, removed key impediments to it at the National Treasury and other ministries, and saw off attempts to remove him, is the ANC and government behaving as if the patronage group lost?


It’s about much more than just personalities

The short answer is that the framework through which many in business, the media and the academy look at the ANC’s economic battle places far too much stress on personalities. It assumes that, if Zuma stays, the patronage group is rampant - if he goes, they will be put to flight.

It was similarly assumed that Gordhan and Jonas were the thin line which kept the patronage faction at bay: once they were gone, it could trample over the fiscus like an invading army.

But the battle is about far more than personalities. It is about how important sections of the ANC and the society relate to the market economy. Within the ANC there are significant groups who see patronage as a mortal threat to the economy. They enjoy substantial support from anyone who has a stake in the formal economy: unions and their members as well as professionals and business people.

They did not disappear on the night of the reshuffle. On the contrary, they regrouped quickly. They seem to have decided that they could win important battles on what government should and should not do about the economy regardless of who is president and in the Cabinet. And they seem to be winning thus far.

While the mainstream debate concentrates on who occupies which positions, the patronage group’s opponents are showing that it is possible to limit the use of public funds for private purposes regardless of who wins the personality battles.

It is, of course, not yet clear how lasting the patronage group’s retreat is – it may well recover. What is clear is that, even if its opponents win the ANC presidency, this faction will not disappear: it may continue to control several provincial governments which can be used as patronage strongholds. So its success, too, depends less on who gets what position.

Molefe’s recent travails, and the events which surround it, show that the battle for the fiscus will continue. And that the economy will be shaped by who wins the battle on concrete decisions more than who sits in government offices.

Steven Friedman, Professor of Political Studies, University of Johannesburg

This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.
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Just a few hours after the British home secretary, Amber Rudd, issued a stern warning to the US government and intelligence officials about leaking sensitive information, they were at it again.

US news outlets had already published the name of the suspect in the Manchester attack before the UK authorities were prepared to make it public. And now not only had more intelligence information been released about the suspects family and their movements, but the New York Times published photographs of bomb fragments and the tattered remains of a backpack.

But while this latest storm over the UK-US relationship and intelligence sharing in the wake of the Manchester attack is far from unique, these leaks are of a different order.

They indicate the febrile state of the administration in Washington. And when the White House gives the appearance of being cavalier with shared intelligence, it is unsurprising when nameless officials ape the commander-in-chief for their own advantage.




Perhaps inevitably, they resulted in the suspension of information sharing – even if this suspension was just for a matter of hours and limited to this single investigation. And in these times of shifting sands, the prime minister, Theresa May, went from defending the Trump administration’s approach to intelligence sharing to confronting the US president over leaks – all in the space of a single week.

But, for all the air of despondency the Manchester investigation leaks have generated, any damage in the UK-US security relationship is likely to be fleeting. Both countries have gained too much from the relationship. And more than anything, the leaks demonstrate just how quickly actionable intelligence flows between them.


A brief history of leaks

The challenge of effective international co-operation and intelligence sharing has long been a subject fraught with controversy. And it is testament to the durability of the relationship that it has weathered many such storms for the best part of a century.

This prize was not easy won, and it has proven very difficult to emulate reliable intelligence sharing – even where terrorism is at issue. Well into the 20th century many states would zealously guard intelligence. And when information was shared it would be on an ad hoc basis, for geo-political advantage.

For one group of countries, intelligence sharing during World War II changed this approach. The the so-called “Five Eyes” countries – the US, UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand – recognised the value of shared intelligence to the allied victory. And, in light of the looming threat of the Cold War, these countries opted to maintain their sharing of signals and communications intelligence under the UKUSA Agreement, which in 1947 set up a top secret, post-war arrangement for sharing intelligence.










But even between these close “Five Eyes” partners, this arrangement did not stop horse-trading of other sources of information – and tensions inevitably arose. To mitigate these problems the partnership developed the “control principle”. This meant that the country which produced the original intelligence could determine whether it was shared with countries outside the partnership, or even if it was to be made public.

The bartering of secrets


That the “Five Eyes” system was maintained in the aftermath of the Cold War was not the product of mere habit. In an era of diffuse and emergent threats there was even – amid talk of a “new world order” – a concerted effort to extend intelligence sharing. And yet, all too often in the wake of terrorist attacks it emerged that different countries’ security agencies held vital information which, if pieced together, could have averted an atrocity.

So, in response to early instances of al-Qaeda related terrorism, Article 15 of the International Convention for the Suppression of Terrorist Bombings obliged signatory states to cooperate in the prevention of terrorist attacks. This was formed in 1997 and required countries to share “accurate and verified information” in such instances.

In the immediate aftermath of the 9/11 attacks the United Nations Security Council took things even further – enjoining all UN member states to “increase co-operation”. This measure aimed to transform international intelligence sharing in response to terrorism in the hope of preventing the next 9/11. And more importantly, put an end to the bartering of secrets seen within the “Five Eyes” system.

Close to home


But without a mechanism for enforcing co-operation, barter has continued to predominate within counter-terrorism partnerships forged after 9/11. For example, Saudi Arabia threatened to terminate intelligence sharing with the UK if a Serious Fraud Office investigation into bribery surrounding the arms company BAE was not halted in 2006. And, in a similar vein, security cooperation with Pakistan is only maintained in exchange of foreign aid – making it clear that intelligence remains a valuable commodity.

Even established security partnerships, such as the “Five Eyes” arrangement, have struggled to adapt to this new paradigm – in part because the “control principle” does not sit easily with a legal duty to share intelligence which might prevent a terrorist attack, but also because an increased risk of leaks is part of the price for enhanced co-operation.

So, despite the US and UK’s seemingly “back-to-normal” working relationship, in a world of imperfect intelligence the Manchester investigation leaks risk exacerbating the tendency of intelligence agencies to want to keep as much information as possible close to home.

Colin Murray, Senior Lecturer in Law, Newcastle University

This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.
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File 20170608 32325 jzuw33
Alexis Sanchez celebrates Arsenal beating Chelsea in the 2017 FA Cup final.
John Sibley/Reuters


Like a lot of kids the great Martinican/Algerian revolutionary Frantz Fanon loved playing soccer as a youngster. Returning to Martinique in 1945 after fighting in Europe and North Africa in World War II, Fanon continued to play soccer on a local team.

Soccer was always part of Fanon’s life. Nearly a decade after the war, he attempted to create a therapeutic community at Blida-Joinville Psychiatric Hospital in Algeria. He organised a soccer team in the institution and arranged for matches with other teams in the community.

In “The Wretched of the Earth”, perhaps Fanon’s most famous book which was written in 1961, he reflects on the anti-colonial struggles in Africa and warns of upcoming challenges. The book was prescient and still remains relevant. But Fanon’s remarks on sport, which come in the central chapter “Pitfalls of National Consciousness”, have been little discussed.

Fanon writes,

The youth of Africa should not be oriented toward the stadiums but toward the fields, the fields and the schools. The stadium is not an urban showpiece but a rural space that is cleared, worked, and offered to the nation. The capitalist notion of sports is fundamentally different from that which should exist in an underdeveloped country.

The context and framing of Fanon’s remarks is important. Remember, this was a period of epochal transformation. The end of formal colonial rule marked by independence.

Imagine the possibility of building solidarity and sociality in the midst of such turmoil? The idea that all are equal and the future is possible only together was one of Fanon’s guiding principles.


Four billion followers


One can only imagine what Fanon would have made of soccer today, especially that it has become so incredibly popular and so driven by money.

Soccer has four billion followers worldwide. According to the sport’s controlling body, FIFA, 270 million people (4% of the world’s population) are actively involved in the game.

Where it comes to professional soccer, obscene amounts of money are made. English Premier League team, Manchester United, rated as the most valuable team in the world, is worth $3.69 billion.

In the pyramid of global soccer, with its players owned and managed by agents, third parties, management companies and so on, local football leagues are often very small cogs in hierarchical system. In Europe the English Premier League, Spain’s La Liga, the Bundesliga in Germany, followed by Serie A and Ligue 1, in Italy and France respectively, vie for the best players.

The European war of the clubs is played out in the highly mediated Champions League. Fans support clubs which use all sorts of illegal and semi-legal means to extract players from the global South often through systems that mirrors the move from periphery to semi-periphery to centre (from Brazil to Portugal to Spain, or from West Africa to France and England and so on).

Everyone is aware of the transfer sagas. They include the valuations of humans, with transfer fees having already exceeded $110 million for some top players (and likely to go even higher now with transfer season open again), the scouting for young talent, the clubs’ rhetoric of “war chests”, the endless TV sport shows speculation about signings, and the school yard banter “we’ve got …” and “you’ve got f… all”.


Laying of wreathsThe culture industry was wonderfully reproduced at Wembley Stadium in May when Arsenal won the FA Cup, beating Chelsea 2-1. The event was introduced not only by the national anthem, standard fare at these things, but also a minute’s silence for the victims of the bombing in Manchester, the laying of wreaths, black armbands, and “I love MCR” signs which were shown multiple times on TV.

The mythology of nation is recreated in this “traditional” sporting event as an act of nostalgia and modernity. Here, globally networked, televised for a fee based international viewership, is “England”.

After they won Arsenal played The Clash’s 1979 punk-rock anthem, “London Calling”, to celebrate the “Emirates Cup” win at Wembley. The iconic English cup, branded as the oldest association football competition in the world, is now named after an airline.







The Clash’s ‘London Calling’.



One element of Premiership football is its international cast of star players. Only a minority of English players play in the “Premier League” – the most branded, most watched league in the world. The Emirates (Arsenal’s branded stadium), whose name also evokes the shining lights of Abu Dhabi neoliberal turbo-capitalism and the super-rich, was opened by the royal right-winger Prince Phillip.

Sepp Blatter, formerly the head-crook at the sports controlling body FIFA, ranked the Queen of England as having more football knowledge than former Italian Prime Minister, AC Milan owner and fraudster, Silvio Berlusconi.

All in all, these are the types of nasty people who own the clubs and run a game. Everyone is aware of this hyper-capitalist story but the outrage is usually directed elsewhere. Fans want rich owners and often turn a blind eye to how they’ve got these riches.

It is all about money, of course.

Sport is also bigger than politics; people talk and argue about sports minutiae all the time. It is a space where ordinary people are allowed to be passionate and knowledgeable. Politics is elitist, technocratic and its discourse is typically opaque. Soccer — very often couched in masculine terms — is populist.


Challenging the alienation


Soccer is a social game, a team game. And we can imagine how Fanon considered it therapeutic with everything centred on his “patients” taking charge from creating the pitch and fielding a team, to finding “opponents” and developing schedules. All this was part of the social therapy that Fanon envisaged would help break down institutional hierarchies in the psychiatric hospital and foster social relations and challenging the alienation that was part of the institution.

When Fanon writes of sport “expanding minds” and the task of “humanising” he is concerned with a mental and psychological liberation, namely freeing the mind from the nervous conditions induced by colonialism and war and the unthinkingly reproduction that Europe be looked to for models.

Fanon here sounds a bit schoolmasterly telling the youth what they should do. But the larger question in these days of corporate global football dominated by European leagues and its teams, with each a “brand” most likely owned by multinational capital, is how can this model possibly be followed in the global south?

Fanon answer is unequivocal:


Comrade, the European game is finally over.

Instead,

The African politician should not be concerned with producing professional sportspeople, but conscious individuals who also practice sports.


But today, one would be hard pressed to find an African politician who would advocate this perspective. Politics is a dirty and corrupt game for personal game. The pragmatic African politician dismisses Fanon’s notions as Utopian. They are not concerned with social transformation but adaption to becoming cogs in the machine of global capital by any means.

What can we make of Fanon’s notion of what sport could be?

He offers a wholly different conception and imagination of sport, decolonisation, and the nation.

Can we imagine a different notion of sport? Not necessarily non-competitive but competitive in a different way: A decolonised notion that is radically anti-capitalist, radically anti-commercial and anti-bourgeois. This is what Fanon is asking us to think about.

Nigel Gibson, Associate Professor of Interdisciplinary Studies, Emerson College

This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.
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Obesity could result from not always having enough food rather than always having too much, our latest research shows. And understanding the evolutionary logic governing our guts helps explain global patterns of obesity and offers clues for tackling it.

Social scientists have written hundreds of papers showing that obesity goes hand in hand with poverty and food insecurity. This is viewed by the profession as paradoxical. But, from an evolutionary point of view, being fat when food-insecure makes good sense. Experiments with birds and mice show that evolution has shaped animals to store fat when food supplies are uncertain. This helps them buffer against starvation in case of food shortfalls.

This survival benefit of carrying more fat is balanced against the disadvantages of reduced athleticism. So only if an animal faces sufficient risk of food scarcity does it pay to be fatter. Inspired by this evolutionary reasoning, we wanted to know if the logic of insuring against starvation by carrying more fat also applied to humans facing unreliable food supplies.

Our meta-analysis of 125 epidemiological studies, published in Behavioural and Brain Sciences, showed a link between people’s perceptions of being food insecure and having higher body weight. Food-insecure people were 21% more likely to be fat compared with those who had regular access to food.




Why aren’t more well-off people fat?
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Caveman brains aren’t wholly to blame


This is not the first time evolutionary biologists have thought about fat. An influential idea is that obesity stems from an evolutionary mismatch between the environment humans evolved in and the one we now inhabit. The idea is that people’s eating decisions were adapted to help our ancestors survive in environments where calories were usually scarce and activity levels high.

Today, these same eating decisions lead to over-consumption – especially of high-calorie foods. According to this view, obesity in modern society is a byproduct of a mind evolved to deal with frequent scarcity, yet is now living in constant abundance. Consistent with this, average body weight and rates of obesity increase as a population’s lifestyle comes to resemble that of the urban developed world.

The problem with the mismatch reasoning, however, is that it struggles to explain why most well-off people are not fat. Even in the US, where obesity rates are very high, around a third of American adults are not overweight.

Widespread obesity is concentrated in countries with relatively high levels of economic inequality. For example, obesity is more common in the unequal US than it is in Japan or Switzerland, even though fatty foods are easy to come by in all three nations. Within countries, obesity is most common among poor people. The problem is that the mismatch idea predicts the opposite pattern. The financially better off should be the most able to satisfy their “caveman” desires and so become fattest. But the reverse is true. Poverty and obesity go together. This is where the “insurance” idea gains the upper hand because it potentially explains why poverty, which often leads to food insecurity, is linked to obesity.

According to the insurance idea, it is not simply the cheaper cost per calorie of cakes over carrots responsible for altering the diets of poorer, food-insecure people. Instead we may be evolved to opt for calorific foods that allow us to store fat when worried about future food supplies.


Piecing the paunchy puzzle together


On close inspection of the data, the insurance idea helps to explain patterns of obesity only among women in developed countries. The link between food insecurity and obesity is much weaker among men and children, and in developing countries. Children may be protected from going hungry when food is short, if others in the family go without.

A possible explanation for the lesser influence on men could be that our male hunter-gatherer ancestors paid a greater penalty for big bellies. Fat might have once hampered men in their roles chasing prey or fighting, tipping the balance in favour of agility over insuring against starvation.

In poor countries, even when food is available, it may not be sufficiently calorie-rich for people to put on much weight before the next episode of scarcity strikes. But waistbands can expand as fast as access to high calorie foods in developing countries, even if periods of food insecurity remain. Extreme obesity among Pacific islanders could be case in point – consumption of locally-produced foods is being replaced by imported fast food, sugary drinks and fatty meats, leading to both greater vulnerability to food insecurity and record rates of obesity.

A combination of mismatch and insurance ideas helps to explain why some waistlines widen while others remain waspy. The constellation of historically unprecedented availability of high calorie foods in a society, combined with periodic food scarcity among its poorest, helps account for contemporary patterns of obesity. Such a synthesis makes sense of why widespread obesity is an epidemic of affluent countries, but particularly of affluent countries with high levels of inequality or economic insecurity.

If this theory is correct, we should prepare for rapid increases in obesity as unequal developing countries transition to industrialised food supplies. The insurance idea could explain why restrictive dieting is rarely effective for losing weight and is often counterproductive. Periodic dieters may unintentionally send signals of food insecurity to the evolved mechanisms regulating body weight, leading to them putting on more fat as soon as food is made readily available again.

Attempts to combat obesity by dieting, public health messages or food labelling, may prove no match for our evolved weight-regulating mechanisms in the face of food insecurity. It might be wiser to shift our focus on global obesity away from people’s eating decisions and onto society’s inequalities over reliable access to food.

Clare Andrews, Postdoctoral Research Associate, Newcastle University

This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.
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A vigil for the victims of an attack at Manchester Arena on May 23, 2017. REUTERS/Peter Nicholls



Editor’s note: The Islamic State has claimed responsibility for an attack at the Manchester Arena that claimed at least 22 lives and hospitalized 59 more people. One victim was just eight years old. The mayor of Manchester called the attack “an evil act.”

Because the media often sensationalizes terrorism and authorities tend to oversimplify it, demystifying common misconceptions about why individuals carry out political violence is important. We asked a professor at Georgetown University to answer three common questions about terrorism and political violence.


1. What is terrorism?

Terrorism is not an ideology like communism or capitalism.

Rather, terrorism is a tactic – a strategy used to achieve a specific end.

This strategy is often used in asymmetric power struggles when a weaker person, or group, is fighting against a powerful nation-state. The violence is aimed at creating fear in the targeted population and often provokes prompt and violent response from the state.

Acts of terrorism followed by violent crackdowns can become a cycle that is difficult to disrupt.

Recently, terrorist groups have begun using the internet and the media to spread fear and affect public opinion. The Islamic State uses the internet to recruit followers.

Nations also use terrorism tactics in other countries to safeguard their own national interest. Iran is known for supporting Hezbollah in Lebanon against Israel. The United States supported the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt against the communist government of Gamal Abdel Nasser and the mujahedeen in Afghanistan against the Soviet Union.


2. What do terrorists want?

Terrorists are not all after the same thing.

Terrorists often justify their bloody acts on the basis of perceived social, economic and political unfairness. Or they take inspiration from religious beliefs or spiritual principles.

Many forms of terrorism were inspired by warfare between races, struggles between the rich and poor or battles between political outcasts and elites.

Some are ethnically based separatism movements, like the Irish Republican Army or Palestine Liberation Organization. The former cartel of Medellin are considered narco-terrorists because they combine drug trafficking with terrorism tactics to intimidate government and population.

Movements led by the extreme left like Colombia’s FARC are an example of terrorism inspired by a socioeconomic doctrine – in this case, a belief in communism.

Many terrorist groups are inspired by a specific interpretation of religious or prophetic scriptures. Al-Qaida and IS are two related groups that justify their violent actions as part of a crusade against nonbelievers. IS wants to establish a Caliphate, or an Islamic-ruled state.

How different terrorist groups act is informed by what they are trying to achieve. Some adopt a reactionary perspective aimed at stopping or resisting social, economic and political changes. Examples include IS, al-Qaida and the Army of God, a Christian anti-abortion group based in the U.S.

Others adopt a revolutionary doctrine and want to provoke change. Examples include the former Red Army Faction in Germany, the Irish Republican Army and Basque separatists in Spain.

Some terrorists seek revenge, or what they consider justice. They are guided by a single issue, such as animal rights (PETA) or pro-life (Army of God).


3. Is terrorism getting worse?

Despite the intensity of media coverage and public perception, terrorism is actually not more frequent today than a few decades ago. For instance, terrorist attacks were far more common during the Cold War period than during the post-9/11 era. Some experts believe terrorism peaked during the 1970s.

Despite the recent attacks, the U.K. and Western Europe experienced relatively low terrorist activity during the period 2000 to 2016 compared with the period 1970 to 1995.

In the United States, terrorism attacks were in sharp decline from 1970 to 2011, decreasing from approximately 475 incidents a year to fewer than 20.

Worldwide, terrorism is highly concentrated in a handful of countries.

Terrorist attacks in 2014 were mainly concentrated in Afghanistan, Iraq, Nigeria, Pakistan and Syria. These countries saw 78 percent of the deaths and 57 percent of all attacks in the world. Since 2000, only 3 percent of deaths caused by terrorist attacks took place in Western countries, including Australia, Canada, members of the European Union and the United States.

In the U.S., the number of deaths represents 2.2 percent of the worldwide terrorist death toll. The violence committed in Western countries by organized terrorist groups such as al-Qaida or IS represents approximately 30 percent, while so-called “lone wolfs” account for 70 percent of the attacks.

All in all, terrorism activity in Western countries is not worse than before the 9/11 era. The opposite is true.

According to American University professor Audrey Cronin, terrorism as a tactic does not work well. Cronin studied 457 terrorist groups worldwide since 1968. The groups lasted an average of eight years before they lost support or were dismantled. No terrorist organizations that she studied were able to conquer a state, and 94 percent were unable to achieve even one of their strategic goals.

This is an updated version of an article originally published on Sept. 19, 2016.

Frederic Lemieux, Professor of the Practice and Faculty Director of the Master's in Applied Intelligence, Georgetown University

This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.
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The alcohol industry is doing exactly what the tobacco industry did several decades ago to ensure growth and increase profits: expanding into Africa as an underdeveloped market. As a result, exposure to alcohol in African countries is expected to increase in the next few years. With it comes alcohol-related health and social problems.

Strategy hints coming out of the US$ 103 billion merger between SAB Miller and AB InBev provide a good reference point. The merged entity’s strategy clearly shows that Africa will be a critical driver for growth. Competitors like Pernod Ricard and Diageo are not far behind.

The alcohol industry is under pressure and needs to develop new sources of growth and profits. Markets in the developed world are under threat as a result of saturation. This is coupled with the fact that only a limited numbers of new drinkers are entering the market each year due to low population growth rates.

The expansion into developing economies comes as warnings about the harm that alcohol causes are gaining traction. As a result several countries have revised their guidelines on alcohol consumption. In the UK for example, there’s a move to regulate the sale and marketing of alcoholic drinks. And in Scotland a minimum price for alcohol is about to be introduced.

As a result the alcohol industry is targeting less regulated but more affluent low and middle income countries. Africa is becoming a key focus.

Studies show this is bad news for the continent. Alcohol is a risk factor for non-communicable diseases such as liver cirrhosis, heart disease and a range of common cancers of the breast, throat and mouth. Alcohol also interacts with other health challenges such as HIV, road traffic accidents, violence – including domestic violence – and mental health.


Alcohol use in Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa provides particularly fertile ground for growing market share due to the high proportion of the population in many countries who don’t yet consume alcohol (especially among females), the high youth population in most countries, and the growth in GDP in certain countries. Low advertising costs, weak regulation, high-intensity consumption of beer in these markets make for an ideal environment for global brands.

The dangers of alcohol are well documented. Across the globe, more than 3.3 million people die from harmful use of alcohol each year. More than 20% of deaths from liver cirrhosis, certain cancers of the mouth and throat, interpersonal violence and self-harm are due to alcohol use.

Alcohol is responsible for more than 7% of all deaths globally and it was the 9th leading risk factor for death and disability globally in 2015, up from tenth place in 2005 and eleventh in 1990. In the southern sub-Saharan Africa region alcohol ranked fifth as a risk factor for death and disability. With rising alcohol exposure, the extent to which alcohol contributes to various negative health outcomes are expected to also increase.


Using tobacco tactics

The global alcohol industry’s new focus in low and middle income countries mirrors the moves made by big tobacco companies in penetrating these markets.

Transnational tobacco corporations have succeeded in driving up smoking in African markets through aggressive marketing strategies. Their strategy included disguising marketing as corporate social responsibility programmes.


Alcohol firms are using the same strategy. Under the guise of corporate social responsibility they have run campaigns to promote “responsible” and “moderate” drinking.

Alcohol companies also position themselves as being committed to promoting the consumption of lower alcohol products. For example AB InBev’s campaign, called Global Smart Drinking Goals, states that its objective is to:

Ensure no- or lower-alcohol beer products represent at least 20% of AB InBev’s global beer volume by the end of 2025.

This may appear to be a positive message, but research on similar strategies suggests otherwise. It indicates that this is unlikely to be about substituting regular beer products for lower alcohol beverages. Rather the aim is to increase the overall size of the beer market through an expanded range of products.

Alcohol companies have also developed low-cost, entry-level products aimed at attracting new consumers, citing the greater safety of commercially produced products over homebrews.

An example is the introduction of commercially manufactured ‘Chibuku Shake Shake’ beer by SABMiller in Zambia. It’s based on a locally brewed traditional sorghum beer but is marketed as offering more consistent quality and safer than the home-brew variant.

The promotion of brewers products as safer alternatives forms part of a wider corporate social responsibility agenda aimed at highlighting the positive social impact that companies are having. A good example is Diageo’s water sanitation project.

Another strategy used successfully by tobacco companies as well as alcohol companies is government partnerships.

These have become an effective avenue through which the industry influences and limits regulation. For example, national alcohol policy documents from four sub-Saharan countries (Lesotho, Botswana, Malawi and Uganda) have been found to be identical and reflecting the alcohol industry’s preferred policy wording.

As the global alcohol industry moves to expand across the continent, more research, policy and public attention needs to be paid to industry practices and governance mechanisms to help understand and prevent the negative impact this will have on the population’s health. Industry expansion into African markets will be sold as being progressive, as providing new jobs, access to safer and healthier alcohol products. Perhaps nearer to the truth would be to describe this as David Jernigan, the leading health academic who has analysed the impact of alcohol and its marketing did, labelling it “Thirsting for Markets” and as possibly even as part of the recolonisation of Africa.

Karen Hofman, Program Director, PRICELESS SA, Wits/MRC Agincourt Rural Health Transitions Unit, University of the Witwatersrand and Charles Parry, Director of the Alcohol, Tobacco & Oher Drug Research Unit, South African Medical Research Council

This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.
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